Investor and Trader Training

The academic economists always say market is efficient, meaning that you can not beat the market. The only thing you can do as an investor is to diversify your portfolio and buy and hold, anything you can make more than the market index, they call it as "abnormal return"

Well, Harvard professors and Nobel laureates are typically not successful investors (sorry!). If the market is truly efficient, nobody can make "abnormal return", how come the rich are getting richer? A few shocking facts:

10% of market participants (Professionals on Wall Street) make 90% of profit on stock market

90% of market participants (average individual investors) make only 10% of profit, if you are in a bull market

The highly respected Financial Institution Goldman Sachs made $37 billion dollars last year, 65% of their profit came from trading, not from invest banking

Do you want to learn how to trade like a pro (GS specialist)?
Do you want to know how to follow Smart Money just like Swimmer did in the past:

OTA-TX President, investing guru/radio show host (Biz Radio 1320 Houston and 1360 Dallas)Vince Rowe has the answer. Recently I went through a FREE half day workshop and am impressed by it. Now we have a partnership with OTA and offer to our readers with the unbias education you deserve. If you are in Houston, Dallas and Austin TX area, you may sign up for a free half day workshop just like I did. Or if you live in US or any parts of the world, you may qualify for a scholarship for their excellent educational products.

To get more information, please send email to: market.swimmer@yahoo.com or click on the following image, cut/paste "Swimmer/OTA Education" on the subject line. Please enter your email address accurately, so that we can send you a link to an additional online course and other valuable trading resources. We protect your privacy and will never share your information with any other company.

Thank you,

Market Swimmer

Milestones - Welcome New Contributors - Market Pulse

It's time to buy SOLF!!!

We have blasted through several milestones today:

- We passed 3,000 unique visitors (more than 3,000 people have visited our site)
- More than 8,000 page views (Sitemeter predicted monthly page view of 23,760)
- Google Analytics shows totally 4,247 visits came from 48 countries/territories from 853 cities around the world
- Up to now (9:00 PM CT) we have had 309 visitors for today, the historical high; record traffic of 113 visitors per hour at 2:00 PM

Please join me to welcome a few new contributors Wizz007 and ChinaIPO. They are the fresh blood of this board, will provide posts with the best quality and highest professionalism to our readers here. Please feel free to make comments, ask questions and participate in discussion.

What else happening around the world?

- Sorry bachelors - richest Chinese woman got married today. Yang Huiyan, a former Ohil State Univ. graduate, est. worth of HK$69.21 billion after her company went to IPO a few days ago. Google her if you want to see her wedding photos, spreading on internet like a wild fire.
- The first baby boomer, Kathleen Casey-Kirschling (born in Philadelphia on Jan. 1, 1946, at 12:00:01 a.m.) received her Social Security check today. 3.2 million baby boomers will follow her foot steps next year, the Social Security's caseload will be 84 million people in 2030, payment will reach more than $2 billion per annual and the system will be broke 5 years later, according to USA Today.

Market Pulse:

** - Oil broke out to new highs, settling at 85.22 on the
WTIC. Support is now at $83 for the WTIC and
$64 for the oil ETF (USO).

** -Interestingly, the Gold ETF (GLD) also broke out,
above 74.6 to close at 75.14, while the Gold contract
did not break out today and remains under resistance
at 760. ($GOLD)

** -The stock-market tested short-term support today:
SPY - 154
IWM - 82
DIA - 139
QQQQ - 52.5

As long as we hold these levels the uptrend remains intact.

Enjoy your day,

Mkt Swimmer

Fuqi International (FUQI)

Follow-up to previous post. Thanks to Bobb who asked a very good question. Since the statistical evidence is "on average," (for example, CSIQ, MPEL, and XFML are Chinese ADRs that have had negative returns in a two month period) it's very important to allocate the total capital on this strategy among a few Chinese ADR IPOs. The last ADR to debut in October is Fuqi International (FUQI).

-It is expected to debut for public trading on the week of Oct. 22, at around $7-$9 a share.

-Incorporated on September 3, 2004, formerly, it is a designer of precious metal jewelry in China, developing, promoting, and selling a range of products in the Chinese luxury goods market. The Company’s products consist of a range of styles and designs made from precious metals, such as platinum, gold, and Karat gold (K-gold), as well as diamonds and other precious stones. Fuqi’s design database presently contains over 20,000 products.

-It is seeking to raise around $53 million dollars to expand its businesses and purchase more inventory (gold, platinum, etc) and claims that it has to turn away customers at this point because investing in inventory is very capital intensive.

-View its roadshow here: http://www.retailroadshow.com/links/show.asp?c=IPOHFUQi

-View SEC filings here: http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=FuqiInternational&action=getcompany

Remember that this strategy is a stat arb strategy, so that while I have very little fundamental conviction that in the long run these companies will succeed, statistics show that historically over two months Chinese ADRs have been a good investment this past year.

Longtop Financial Technologies Limited (LFT)

There are only two more Chinese ADRs slated to debut this October. Be on the lookout for Longtop Financial Technologies Limited (LVT)

-Pricing on Oct 23 ($12-$14 range), public trading on Oct 24 (10.4mm shares offered):
Longtop Financial Technologies Limited (Longtop) is a software developer and information technology (IT) services provider targeting the financial services industry in China. It was founded in 1996, and in the last twelve months ending 6/30/07, it had revenues of $50 million and a net income of $13 million. It is seeking to raise 150 mm or so for the purchase of a building, general operations, and strategic acquisitions.

-View its roadshow presentation: http://www.retailroadshow.com/links/show.asp?c=IPOHLFT

-Check out its SEC filings: http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=LongtopFinancial

-This past year, Chinese ADRs have performed differently than domestic IPOs on average. The return in a two month period on average is large and positive, whereas for domestic IPOs it is on average negative.

Mid-Day Report

Two Chinese stocks are doing well today, despite the market is down:

CMED and
TCM

Besides, NTCT (which I recommended in September) jumped 10% today, click on the "Recent Performance" link on the left column to find more.

I will add more information about these two stocks later.

Swimmer

Guru View

Stock Market Over View

The market outlook is mixed from the Smart Money purchase of future indexes, as we witnessed the dramatic reversal on Thursday after the market reached new highs for the month. Tursday's high is now key resistance:

SPX - 1570, RUT - 850, NDX - 2190, INDU - 14200

But as long as we hold above Thursday's low, the trend
remains UP. (SPX support - 1550; RUT support - 830).

On the other hand,

Smart Money is aggressive sellers of the $VIX index (the infamous "Fear Indix"). As I explained before, the Smart Money is betting the market will continue to go up and the volatility will go down.

It's fun to watch "Clone Trouble" from Yahoo:



Hope you like it,

Mkt Swimmer